Modeling Values for Counter-Terrorism Analysis

Decisions are made to achieve objectives. A value model unambiguously represents objectives in a quantitative manner. Hence, a value model both guides thinking and provides a basis for analyzing alternatives to best meet the desired objectives. This paper proposes the development of value models to support counter-terrorism efforts. It summarizes the theory and procedures to develop value models for the Department of Homeland Security and for terrorist organizations. The later is useful to both design counter-terrorism alternatives and suggest possible terrorist priorities and actions. An example that develops a terrorist value model for the theft and misuse of plutonium is presented. Several uses of value models for counter-terrorist activities are discussed and suggestions for developing such value models are outlined.